Apple is positioned to reclaim the top position in global smartphone shipments for the first time in 14 years, with market analysts projecting that the company will surpass Samsung by the end of 2025.
According to Counterpoint Research, Apple is expected to ship approximately 243 million iPhone units this year, compared to Samsung's projected 235 million shipments—a margin of roughly 8 million devices. This achievement represents a significant milestone, as Samsung has maintained the leading market position since 2011.
The surge in Apple's smartphone shipments is largely driven by the exceptional performance of the iPhone 17 lineup, which launched in September 2025. The new series has demonstrated remarkable sales momentum across Apple's key markets. In the United States, iPhone 17 sales during the first four weeks post-launch were 12 percent higher than those of the iPhone 16 series, excluding the lower-cost iPhone 16e model.
The performance in China has been even more striking, with iPhone 17 sales exceeding the previous generation by 18 percent during the same timeframe. Most notably, Apple captured 25 percent of China's smartphone market in October, generating a 37 percent year-over-year sales increase in that crucial market.
Apple is forecast to achieve a 19.4 percent share of global smartphone shipments in 2025, marginally surpassing Samsung's expected 18.7 percent share.
This represents Apple's projected 10 percent year-over-year growth in shipments, substantially outpacing Samsung's anticipated 4.6 percent growth and the overall smartphone market expansion of 3.3 percent. The global smartphone market itself continues to show healthy expansion, with the iPhone 17 series contributing meaningfully to this growth trajectory.
Multiple factors have converged to create favorable conditions for Apple's market resurgence. The device replacement cycle has reached a critical inflection point, as consumers who purchased smartphones during the pandemic surge are now seeking upgrades.
Between 2023 and the second quarter of 2025, 358 million secondhand iPhones were sold globally, creating an additional pool of potential upgraders who may transition to newer models in the near term. This structural demand base provides continued momentum for iPhone shipment growth.
The iPhone 17 lineup itself has undergone strategic revisions that appear to have resonated with consumers. The introduction of the iPhone Air model, which replaced the Plus variant in the series, alongside adjustments to memory design and pricing strategies, has broadened the appeal across different market segments.
Despite some initial concerns about the reception of the iPhone Air and ongoing questions about Apple's artificial intelligence initiatives, the overall iPhone 17 performance has exceeded expectations.
External macroeconomic factors have also supported Apple's position. The company has experienced a less severe impact from U.S. tariffs than initially anticipated, partly due to easing trade tensions between the United States and China.
The relative weakness of the dollar against other currencies has strengthened purchasing power in emerging markets, bolstering consumer confidence and demand. These favorable conditions have extended Apple's competitive advantage, particularly in growth regions where aspirational consumers represent an expanding opportunity for premium smartphone adoption.
Apple's supply chain resilience and manufacturing diversification efforts have enabled the company to navigate recent geopolitical complexities more effectively than competitors.
Samsung, by contrast, faces intensifying pressure in the low-to-mid-tier smartphone market from aggressive competition by Chinese manufacturers, which could impede efforts to recapture market leadership.
Counterpoint Research projects that Apple will maintain its position as the world's leading smartphone maker through at least 2029. The research firm anticipates several product developments that could further solidify Apple's market dominance. An entry-level iPhone 17e model is expected in the first half of 2026, followed by the company's first foldable smartphone by the end of 2026, and a major iPhone design overhaul scheduled for 2027 to commemorate the device's 20th anniversary.
By expanding its portfolio across multiple price tiers and diversifying its product offerings, Apple is strategically positioning itself to capture rising demand from aspirational consumers, particularly in emerging markets, while simultaneously strengthening its presence in the lower-premium segment, which is projected to expand faster than the broader smartphone market.
The significance of this market shift extends beyond shipment volumes. Apple is anticipated to remain the leading revenue generator in the global smartphone market throughout the remainder of the decade, demonstrating that its leadership reflects not merely unit volume but also pricing power and profitability.
This distinction is particularly relevant given the increasing value creation potential within the premium and high-end smartphone categories.
Looking toward 2026, component pricing pressures are expected to create headwinds for the broader industry, with growing costs for smartphone components likely to moderate overall market growth.
However, both Apple and Samsung possess integrated supply chains and diversified component sourcing strategies that should provide greater resilience against such inflationary pressures compared to smaller competitors.
The competitive landscape continues to evolve, with the market recognizing that Apple's approach to artificial intelligence—marked by disciplined investment and measured deployment of features—has not diminished consumer interest in iPhone purchases, contrasting with the market's heightened focus on AI spending among other technology manufacturers.
This distinction has contributed to Apple's stock resilience and market valuation during periods when broader technology sector valuations faced pressure.
