Apple is poised to surpass Samsung as the world's largest smartphone manufacturer in 2025, marking the first time the technology giant has achieved this milestone in 14 years.
Market research firm Counterpoint Research projects that Apple will ship approximately 243 million iPhone units this year, compared to Samsung's estimated 235 million shipments. This development represents a significant shift in the smartphone industry hierarchy that has remained largely unchanged since 2011.
The projected shipment figures translate to Apple capturing 19.4% of the global smartphone market, while Samsung's share is expected to decline to 18.7%. Apple's shipments are anticipated to grow 10% year-over-year, substantially outpacing Samsung's projected growth rate of 4.6%.
The overall smartphone market itself is expected to expand by 3.3% in 2025, underscoring the competitive strength of Apple's performance within this context.
The iPhone 17 series, launched in September 2025, has emerged as the primary catalyst for Apple's market recovery. The new lineup includes the iPhone Air, iPhone 17, iPhone 17 Pro, and iPhone 17 Pro Max, and has demonstrated exceptional market reception across key regions. In the United States, sales of the iPhone 17 series during the initial four-week post-launch period were 12% higher than the iPhone 16 series.
In China, a market of critical importance to Apple, the iPhone 17 series achieved 18% greater sales than its predecessor during the same timeframe. The strong performance reflects both hardware improvements and strategic pricing decisions that have resonated with consumers worldwide.
The iPhone 17 series incorporates several notable enhancements that distinguish it from previous generations. The standard model features a 120Hz ProMotion adaptive refresh rate screen for the first time, combined with a Super Retina XDR display offering peak brightness of 3,000 nits, significantly improving outdoor visibility and visual smoothness.
Storage capacity has been upgraded across the entire lineup from 128GB to 256GB without corresponding price increases, addressing a long-standing consumer concern regarding insufficient storage capacity. The A19 chip utilizes TSMC's 3-nanometer process with GPU performance improvements exceeding 30%, enabling superior handling of graphically demanding applications. Battery capacity has been increased to 3,692 mAh, extending video playback time from 22 hours to 30 hours.
Beyond the immediate appeal of new hardware, Apple's resurgence reflects deeper structural factors within the smartphone market. According to Yang Wang, Senior Analyst at Counterpoint Research, a critical driver of Apple's improved shipment forecast involves the replacement cycle reaching an inflection point. Consumers who purchased smartphones during the COVID-19 pandemic surge are now entering their upgrade phase, creating substantial demand for new devices.
Between 2023 and the second quarter of 2025, approximately 358 million second-hand iPhones were sold globally. Many of these users are likely candidates for upgrading to new iPhone models in the near future, establishing a significant demand reservoir expected to sustain iPhone shipment growth over coming quarters.
External economic factors have also contributed favorably to Apple's competitive position. The company benefited from a trade truce between the United States and China that limited tariff impacts on its supply chain more severely than competitors faced. A weaker U.S.
dollar relative to other major currencies has bolstered consumer purchasing power in international markets, while broader economic resilience has sustained consumer confidence in discretionary spending. These macroeconomic headwinds-turned-tailwinds have provided Apple with structural advantages that competitors have struggled to overcome.
Samsung's challenges in maintaining its market leadership stem partly from intensifying competition in the low-to-mid-tier smartphone segment, where Chinese manufacturers including Xiaomi, OPPO, and Vivo have gained substantial market share.
The competition has constrained Samsung's ability to expand in emerging markets and maintain pricing flexibility in segments where Chinese competitors offer compelling alternatives. While Samsung remains a major player with substantial shipments, its growth trajectory has slowed considerably relative to Apple's momentum.
Counterpoint Research projects that Apple will maintain its position as the leading smartphone manufacturer through at least 2029, based on multiple structural considerations. The firm anticipates Apple will introduce an entry-level iPhone 17e model next year, along with a foldable smartphone device designed to capture additional market segments.
Enhanced versions of Apple's virtual assistant Siri powered by Apple Intelligence are expected to roll out gradually, with a major iPhone redesign anticipated in 2027. These product developments are strategically designed to expand Apple's addressable market across price tiers while maintaining its dominant position in the premium segment.
The ecosystem advantages underpinning Apple's longevity merit particular consideration. The preference among consumers for the iOS ecosystem, combined with device compatibility and the substantial base of older iPhone models approaching obsolescence, creates ongoing upgrade demand that competitors find difficult to replicate.
By diversifying its product offerings across multiple price points through an expanding "e" series and potential adjustments to Pro and Base launch cycles, Apple is positioning itself to capture rising demand from aspirational consumers, particularly in emerging markets, while reinforcing its presence in the lower premium segment, which industry analysts project will grow faster than the overall market.
The last occasion on which Apple led in global smartphone shipment volume occurred in 2011, making the anticipated 2025 achievement a return to prominence after 14 years of Samsung's market dominance. This reversal reflects not merely temporary market fluctuations but fundamental shifts in consumer preferences, product competitiveness, and strategic execution.
The implications extend beyond Apple's quarterly earnings to reshape industry competitive dynamics and inform strategic decisions across the broader technology sector. Samsung and other competitors will face sustained pressure to innovate and adapt to Apple's renewed market leadership, potentially triggering industry-wide shifts in research and development priorities, pricing strategies, and product positioning over the coming years.
